Military coup in Myanmar: Assessment of the current situation by our local guide

Military coup Myanmar

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Military coup in Myanmar: After a decade since the end of military dictatorship, the army has seized power again in a military coup in Myanmar. What happened? What is the situation on the ground? And what consequences do we expect? Our local guide Andreas* on the ground in Myanmar reports.

Andreas, there was a military coup in Myanmar on the night of 02/01/2021. What exactly happened in the night?

Monday morning at about 02:30, the armed forces started to arrest the government, including the President, the 1st Vice President (civilian) and State Counsellor Daw Aung San Suu Kyi. Furthermore, the cabinet, some "Chief Ministers" (like in Germany the Prime Ministers of the Länder) and a number of MPs of the NLD were arrested. The NLD forms the government. The second vice president, a lieutenant general, was appointed as acting president, reporting to the commander-in-chief of the Myanmar armed forces, Senior General Min Aung Hlaing. A state of emergency has been declared.

In the morning of 01.02.2021 there were first reports in the local media about the aim and purpose of the takeover of power by the military. According to them, it is planned that this "phase" is limited to 12 months and then they plan to hold new elections. After the elections, the winning party will form a new government. Today, February 2, 2021, the first lists of names appeared in the local media. The commander-in-chief or the acting president have had lists of names published, listing the names of former and now newly appointed ministers. These newly appointed ministers are mostly civilians. Those ministers who are generals head the ministries that were also previously occupied by generals (defense, interior and border affairs).

In the course of 1 February, the mobile networks and the Internet were temporarily switched off. However, by the evening at the latest, it was possible to communicate normally again. Social media were full of announcements of further internet and power cuts, but none of these materialised.

Where exactly did the military coup in Myanmar take place?

The military coup in Myanmar began in the capital Naypyidaw, about 5 hours drive north of the old and commercial capital Yangon. Naypyidaw is home to the ministries and the parliaments. In Yangon, the city hall in the city center was surrounded by security forces. 

Yangon, Myanmar

Military coup in Myanmar: Why did the military go against the government?

In November 2020, parliamentary elections were held, which were overwhelmingly won by the NLD. The armed forces and the USDP political party, as the "house party" of the armed forces, raised allegations of irregularities and possible electoral fraud and demanded access to the ballot papers, various registers and a possible recount of the ballots. The UEC (Union Election Commission) did not comply with this demand.

Mediation talks between the military and the government failed to produce any results. Last week, fronts hardened and for the first time the military raised the possibility of a coup, which led to great unrest. The military then rowed back, saying they had misunderstood what the military had said. The military coup in Myanmar early Monday morning happened just hours before the first constituent session of the new parliament in Naypyidaw.

The armed forces have the constitutional power to seize power if they see unity, sovereignty and order in Myanmar threatened. With the allegations of electoral fraud and irregularities during the November 2020 election and the intransigence of the UEC, they saw order and sovereignty in Myanmar threatened. However, they should have actually convened the National Security Council to decide on the state of emergency, but this was not done as the President (now in detention) had arguably refused to convene this council. However, unlike previous military takeovers (1962, 1988), this time the constitution was not suspended. 

Further, the issue is likely to be the commander-in-chief, Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, who will turn 65 in the summer of 2021, and thus must retire according to military regulations. It is believed that he is not willing to do so and that he wanted to take over a political function later on as a civilian, with similar or at least a high level of power, which he did not succeed in doing, as the USDP won very few mandates in November. 

Military Coup In Myanmar: Triplegend Reports With Exclusive Interview

What is the role of the de facto head of government Aung San Suu Kyi and her party the National League for Democracy (NLD)?

Because she is in detention, Aung San Suu Kyi has no role to play at present. But she could well have worked in recent months and weeks to implement, or at least appease, the armed forces' demands for scrutiny of election documents and ballots. After coming to power yesterday, the military announced it would reform the electoral law. When new elections are likely to happen in November 2021, it is likely that the NLD will win again and that Suu Kyi will return to high office. In my opinion, such a result would also be accepted by the military if absolute transparency in the election process ensures that allegations of irregularities do not flare up again.

In what ways was public life affected by the military junta?

Junta means "council" and no such council was formed yesterday! The SLORC and SPCD military governments from 1988 and 1997 respectively were military councils that ruled on the basis of decrees and decrees without a constitutional basis. With the takeover yesterday, the constitution was not suspended and the powers of government are exercised by the acting president who was previously vice president. These offices have constitutional status!

Yesterday there were communications and television outages. Furthermore, it was heard that there was a storm on food. Today everything seems to be back to normal. I've just been to the market - it's business as usual. The nightly curfew from 0 to 4 due to COVID-19 seems to have been extended (still unconfirmed) to 8 to 4.

The biggest restriction, however, is the closure of all airports for domestic and long-distance traffic until 31.05.2021. Although there was no or hardly any scheduled traffic through COVID-19, but only so-called relief flights, but you could at least travel abroad or from abroad to Myanmar, even if that was associated with considerable obstacles for foreigners to travel from abroad to Myanmar. Now, however, all landing and take-off rights have been suspended.

By Covid, there were already curfews and orders to stay home. People were allowed to shop, go to work, and go to the doctor. That hasn't gotten worse or better. Restaurants have been offering only delivery and pickup for months.

Military coup in Myanmar: What impact will it have on tourism? Will tourists stay away now even after COVID-19?

With the democratic transition starting in 2011, foreign tourist arrivals in Myanmar increased rapidly every year. Before 2011, during the time of the military councils, it was considered "not chic" to travel to a country ruled by the military. However, now that the constitution is still in force and the duration of the state of emergency is limited to "only" one year, I suspect we will see little impact. Against the background of COVID-19 would be foreign tourists only from October 2021 at the earliest come back to Myanmar when the vaccinations have been administered.

Military Coup in Myanmar: Impact on Tourism in the Country

What always amazes me is that Thailand has been ruled quite similarly by the military since 2014, and then tourists traveling to Thailand have no "moral" concerns at all. On the contrary, before COVID-19 Thailand recorded about 40 million tourists a year, with a strong upward trend, and that despite an actual "military council" there. However, I can't make a concrete statement on this, only an estimate.

How do you assess the current security situation for foreigners in the country?

Since one was not allowed to travel or hardly allowed to travel because of COVID-19, all foreigners and also the locals were and are bound to their place of residence, go to work, shopping and maybe to the doctor. This rhythm has been established for months. I hardly see any restrictions on the situation. Even when there are protests by the local population, they are directed at the armed forces, not foreigners. Still, I would avoid such gatherings, of course.

What do you wish for the future of the country?

More dialogue between the military and the civilian government. The military, according to its tradition and according to constitutional provisions, will remain an integral part of the political system for years or even decades to come. They will only gradually begin to withdraw from their political role when they are sure that the constitutional order creates a stable, self-sustaining political system that does not require further oversight, control or even intervention.

The civilian government's attempts to prematurely end this constitutional role through voting have not only always failed, but have also led to further tensions. Further, such advances ensure that the armed forces see themselves as not being taken seriously in their role. Only the military has the power to schedule its own political participation in the Myanmar political system.

Thank you Andreas for this detailed and insightful interview about the military coup in Myanmar. Further background information on the military coup in Myanmar is provided by Deutschlandfunk - The Day as well as the Tagesschau.

*Name changed by the editors for security reasons

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